Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.29 – 167.8

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

222 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 89.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 504.6 ±10.5

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 36.81Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 68.89Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6343Steel Ridge

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX -2.41Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.4 ±10.2

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 4.77Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 129.99Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9567StormBreakers

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 33.04Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 753, 5468, 6343

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 753, 5468, 6343

Auto

21.3 20%

Teleop

58.7 54%

Endgame

28.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2811, 846, 9567

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2811, 846, 9567

Auto

25.1 16%

Teleop

95.7 60%

Endgame

39.2 25%

Strengths

· 846 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.3pts

Blue projected score167.8pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.5
Score range: 80–191
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 125.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

504.6Season APEX411.4

21.3Auto25.1

58.7Teleop95.7

28.8Endgame39.2

160Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	21
teleop	133	36
endgame	40	20
foul	20	30
total	222	107

Result

Final score

222 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 89.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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