Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

114.1 – 79.21

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 44.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 194.9 ±11.6

6845River Bots

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 5.53Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4060Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX 11.95Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 96.62Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282 ±11.7

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX -20.79Rank 26Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3674CloverBots

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 77.79Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1359Scalawags

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 22.21Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6845, 4060, 2374

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6845, 4060, 2374

Auto

18.4 16%

Teleop

57.1 49%

Endgame

40.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9438, 3674, 1359

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9438, 3674, 1359

Auto

25.8 33%

Teleop

17.5 22%

Endgame

34.5 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score114.1pts

Blue projected score79.2pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.9
Score range: 56–137
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 125.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

194.9Season APEX282

18.4Auto25.8

57.1Teleop17.5

40Endgame34.5

34Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	20
teleop	29	69
endgame	28	44
foul	0	0
total	79	133

Result

Final score

79 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 44.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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