Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

105.9 – 35.89

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

118 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 10.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 461.6 ±10

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 37.05Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 59.02Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3712RoboCats

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 9.83Rank 32Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 183.8 ±11.6

6465Mystic Biscuit

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 52.69Rank 31Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6845River Bots

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX -2.61Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4061SciBorgs

Season APEX 99.8Event APEX -14.19Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 753, 9023, 3712

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 753, 9023, 3712

Auto

18.5 17%

Teleop

64.6 61%

Endgame

22.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6465, 6845, 4061

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6465, 6845, 4061

Auto

8.7 28%

Teleop

-15.5 0%

Endgame

37.9 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.9pts

Blue projected score35.9pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70
Score range: 13–129
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 163 vs event baseline 129.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

461.6Season APEX183.8

18.5Auto8.7

64.6Teleop-15.5

22.9Endgame37.9

174Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	0
teleop	84	39
endgame	22	6
foul	0	0
total	118	45

Result

Final score

118 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 10.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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