Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.73 – 105.62

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

266 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 647.7 ±10.2

1359Scalawags

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 7.15Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 140.3Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 90.28Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290.6 ±12.2

8532Classified

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 5.79Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

749Ctrl V

Season APEX 74Event APEX 28.66Rank 21Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 71.17Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1359, 1540, 955

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1359, 1540, 955

Auto

52.6 22%

Teleop

137.9 58%

Endgame

47.8 20%

Strengths

· 1540 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8532, 749, 997

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8532, 749, 997

Auto

26.2 24%

Teleop

46.0 42%

Endgame

37.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score237.7pts

Blue projected score105.6pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 132.1
Score range: 83–261
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

647.7Season APEX290.6

52.6Auto26.2

137.9Teleop46

47.8Endgame37.4

40Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	36
teleop	124	66
endgame	65	26
foul	5	5
total	266	133

Result

Final score

266 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree