Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

242.55 – 112.35

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

237 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 3.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 498.1 ±9.8

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 119.02Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 68.93Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 54.6Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.8 ±12.2

4043NerdHerd

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 26.86Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

749Ctrl V

Season APEX 74Event APEX 29.61Rank 21Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 55.88Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 846, 997, 9430

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 846, 997, 9430

Auto

59.6 25%

Teleop

118.8 50%

Endgame

60.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4043, 749, 2926

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4043, 749, 2926

Auto

14.1 12%

Teleop

67.7 59%

Endgame

32.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score242.6pts

Blue projected score112.4pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 130.2
Score range: 85–270
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 151.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

498.1Season APEX258.8

59.6Auto14.1

118.8Teleop67.7

60Endgame32.5

86Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	21
teleop	108	35
endgame	69	58
foul	0	0
total	237	114

Result

Final score

237 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 3.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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