Qualification · Qualification 15
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
79.74 – 44.39
61%39%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
73 – 282
Prediction missed · off by 122.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 187 ±12.7
Season APEX 47.9Event APEX 24.69Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 5.17Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 74Event APEX 49.88Rank 21Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 447.9 ±10
Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 47Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 12.03Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 64.8Event APEX -14.64Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4060, 5920, 749
57
/ 100 compatProjected
79.7 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 4060, 5920, 749
Auto
24.6 31%
Teleop
38.2 48%
Endgame
17.4 22%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2374, 9023, 4043
29
/ 100 compatProjected
44.4 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 2374, 9023, 4043
Auto
6.4 14%
Teleop
9.9 22%
Endgame
28.2 63%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.32
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score79.7pts
Blue projected score44.4pts
Red win probability61%
Event bonus sample170alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 52%, blue 50%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 35.3
- Score range
- 23–101
- Upset likelihood
- 39%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
187Season APEX447.9
24.6Auto6.4
38.2Teleop9.9
17.4Endgame28.2
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 7 | 31 |
| teleop | 39 | 184 |
| endgame | 27 | 67 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 73 | 282 |
Result
Final score
73 – 282
Prediction missed · off by 122.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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