Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.95 – 66.57

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 57.7 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 252.9 ±11.6

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 40.87Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6465Mystic Biscuit

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 10.15Rank 31Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8532Classified

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 13.93Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 170.1 ±12.7

4692Metal Mallards

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 26.58Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6343Steel Ridge

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 10.15Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

749Ctrl V

Season APEX 74Event APEX 29.84Rank 21Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2521, 6465, 8532

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2521, 6465, 8532

Auto

20.7 33%

Teleop

23.3 37%

Endgame

19.2 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4692, 6343, 749

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4692, 6343, 749

Auto

10.9 17%

Teleop

21.1 32%

Endgame

33.4 51%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score64.9pts

Blue projected score66.6pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.6
Score range: 45–87
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 247 vs event baseline 109.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

252.9Season APEX170.1

20.7Auto10.9

23.3Teleop21.1

19.2Endgame33.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	27
teleop	85	51
endgame	45	9
foul	0	0
total	160	87

Result

Final score

160 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 57.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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