Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

317.84 – 230.96

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

247 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 639.5 ±9.5

5920VIKotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 41.53Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 128.69Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 147.62Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 736.7 ±7.5

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 23.88Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 89.63Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 117.45Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5920, 1540, 5468

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5920, 1540, 5468

Auto

53.7 17%

Teleop

193.0 62%

Endgame

64.0 21%

Strengths

· 5468 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2811, 9023, 955

/ 100 compat

Projected

231 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2811, 9023, 955

Auto

48.4 22%

Teleop

124.7 56%

Endgame

51.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.06 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score317.8pts

Blue projected score231pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 86.9
Score range: 204–345
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 472 vs event baseline 150.4.

← Previous

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

639.5Season APEX736.7

53.7Auto48.4

193Teleop124.7

64Endgame51.5

0Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	48
teleop	111	129
endgame	74	48
foul	15	0
total	247	225

Result

Final score

247 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 pts

Match videos

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