Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

279.54 – 234.46

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

391 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 59 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 410.8 ±11

2930Sonic Squirrels

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 10.08Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3674CloverBots

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 117.33Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 152.13Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.6 ±11.6

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 95.09Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2557SOTAbots

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 69.65Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9600X-Flare Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 69.72Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2930, 3674, 4488

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2930, 3674, 4488

Auto

54.2 20%

Teleop

149.8 55%

Endgame

66.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 957, 2557, 9600

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 957, 2557, 9600

Auto

40.0 17%

Teleop

123.0 54%

Endgame

66.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score279.5pts

Blue projected score234.5pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.1
Score range: 193–321
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 632 vs event baseline 225.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

410.8Season APEX305.6

54.2Auto40

149.8Teleop123

66.1Endgame66.6

78Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	47
teleop	214	111
endgame	110	78
foul	0	5
total	391	241

Result

Final score

391 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 59 pts

Match videos

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