Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

406.85 – 270.73

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

417 – 330

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 569.2 ±9.5

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 155.27Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2898Flying Hedgehogs

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 45.7Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 205.88Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410.8 ±11

2930Sonic Squirrels

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 7.21Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3674CloverBots

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 114.52Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 149Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6696, 2898, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

406.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6696, 2898, 1540

Auto

68.1 17%

Teleop

247.3 62%

Endgame

85.1 21%

Strengths

· 1540 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2930, 3674, 4488

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2930, 3674, 4488

Auto

51.3 20%

Teleop

146.6 56%

Endgame

62.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.49 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score406.9pts

Blue projected score270.7pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 136.1
Score range: 231–447
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 747 vs event baseline 220.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

569.2Season APEX410.8

68.1Auto51.3

247.3Teleop146.6

85.1Endgame62.4

15Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	69
teleop	215	170
endgame	105	86
foul	15	5
total	417	330

Result

Final score

417 – 330

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 pts

Match videos

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