Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

234.15 – 162.45

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 162

Prediction missed · off by 84.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352 ±11.6

5970Beavertronics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 8.84Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 85.41Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2990Hotwire

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 139.9Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 293.6 ±10.7

8032SAASquatch Robotics

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 95.23Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 69.98Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10444Ursa Major

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX -2.76Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5970, 2521, 2990

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5970, 2521, 2990

Auto

36.8 16%

Teleop

127.3 55%

Endgame

68.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8032, 2811, 10444

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8032, 2811, 10444

Auto

31.5 20%

Teleop

77.4 48%

Endgame

51.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.23 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score234.2pts

Blue projected score162.5pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.7
Score range: 122–274
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 228 vs event baseline 222.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352Season APEX293.6

36.8Auto31.5

127.3Teleop77.4

68.3Endgame51

54Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	40
teleop	22	95
endgame	8	27
foul	10	0
total	66	162

Result

Final score

66 – 162

Prediction missed · off by 84.3 pts

Match videos

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