Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
310.59 – 244.05
70%30%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
314 – 267
Prediction correct · off by 13.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 620.5 ±9.9
Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 166.07Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 33.67Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 110.85Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366 ±11
Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 108.41Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 114.87Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 20.77Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 955, 6465, 4915
78
/ 100 compatProjected
310.6 pts
~2.1 RP (district)
Teams: 955, 6465, 4915
Auto
61.7 21%
Teleop
166.8 57%
Endgame
63.8 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 66%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 997, 9430, 3636
68
/ 100 compatProjected
244.1 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 997, 9430, 3636
Auto
44.6 20%
Teleop
133.5 59%
Endgame
49.1 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 66%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 1.43
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score310.6pts
Blue projected score244.1pts
Red win probability70%
Event bonus sample170alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 66%, blue 74%
Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 6%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 66.5
- Score range
- 204–351
- Upset likelihood
- 30%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
620.5Season APEX366
61.7Auto44.6
166.8Teleop133.5
63.8Endgame49.1
34Consistency60
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 40 | 52 |
| teleop | 129 | 149 |
| endgame | 110 | 61 |
| foul | 35 | 5 |
| total | 314 | 267 |
Result
Final score
314 – 267
Prediction correct · off by 13.2 pts
Match videos
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