Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

348.32 – 293.84

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

410 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 620.5 ±9.9

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 178.63Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6465Mystic Biscuit

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 46.41Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 123.28Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410.8 ±11

2930Sonic Squirrels

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 15.29Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3674CloverBots

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 121.46Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 157.09Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 955, 6465, 4915

/ 100 compat

Projected

348.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 955, 6465, 4915

Auto

57.4 18%

Teleop

188.6 58%

Endgame

78.3 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2930, 3674, 4488

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2930, 3674, 4488

Auto

55.9 20%

Teleop

158.4 55%

Endgame

71.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score348.3pts

Blue projected score293.8pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.5
Score range: 253–389
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 718 vs event baseline 230.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

620.5Season APEX410.8

57.4Auto55.9

188.6Teleop158.4

78.3Endgame71.7

7Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	62
teleop	226	163
endgame	88	68
foul	15	15
total	410	308

Result

Final score

410 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 pts

Match videos

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