Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

400.03 – 393.38

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

352 – 450

Prediction missed · off by 52.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 544.8 ±10.2

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 153.64Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

749Ctrl V

Season APEX 74Event APEX 42.39Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 204Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 551.8 ±9.8

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX 48.78Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 179.4Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 165.2Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6696, 749, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

400 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6696, 749, 1540

Auto

74.6 19%

Teleop

222.5 57%

Endgame

94.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10991, 1425, 2471

/ 100 compat

Projected

393.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10991, 1425, 2471

Auto

102.0 27%

Teleop

205.6 55%

Endgame

65.6 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score400pts

Blue projected score393.4pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.6
Score range: 352–441
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 802 vs event baseline 228.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

544.8Season APEX551.8

74.6Auto102

222.5Teleop205.6

94.5Endgame65.6

27Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	111
teleop	161	227
endgame	113	97
foul	5	15
total	352	450

Result

Final score

352 – 450

Prediction missed · off by 52.3 pts

Match videos

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