Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

323.63 – 161.69

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

501 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 116.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 620.5 ±9.9

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 170.35Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6465Mystic Biscuit

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 38.44Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 114.84Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 293.6 ±10.7

8032SAASquatch Robotics

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 93.27Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10444Ursa Major

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX -1.87Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 70.29Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 955, 6465, 4915

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 955, 6465, 4915

Auto

56.1 19%

Teleop

171.1 57%

Endgame

75.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8032, 10444, 2811

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8032, 10444, 2811

Auto

32.6 20%

Teleop

81.6 51%

Endgame

45.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.52 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score323.6pts

Blue projected score161.7pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 161.9
Score range: 121–365
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 718 vs event baseline 226.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

620.5Season APEX293.6

56.1Auto32.6

171.1Teleop81.6

75.1Endgame45.8

25Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	40
teleop	294	115
endgame	101	62
foul	40	0
total	501	217

Result

Final score

501 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 116.3 pts

Match videos

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