Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

194.8 – 206.25

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

164 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 49.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 378.9 ±10.5

6465Mystic Biscuit

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 37.57Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3674CloverBots

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 111.74Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX 45.49Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.8 ±11.7

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 149.89Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9567StormBreakers

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 12.98Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 43.38Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6465, 3674, 10991

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6465, 3674, 10991

Auto

39.3 22%

Teleop

85.0 47%

Endgame

58.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2471, 9567, 2635

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2471, 9567, 2635

Auto

59.1 28%

Teleop

115.4 55%

Endgame

37.1 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score194.8pts

Blue projected score206.2pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.4
Score range: 156–245
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 439 vs event baseline 218.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

378.9Season APEX381.8

39.3Auto59.1

85Teleop115.4

58.2Endgame37.1

89Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	55
teleop	85	179
endgame	19	31
foul	20	10
total	164	275

Result

Final score

164 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 49.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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