Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

269.9 – 156.04

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

212 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 78 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 419.7 ±9.5

3636Generals

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 26.63Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 163.75Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 79.52Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 424.2 ±11.7

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 119Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5970Beavertronics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 12.2Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1359Scalawags

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 24.84Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3636, 6696, 2811

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3636, 6696, 2811

Auto

40.9 16%

Teleop

155.5 60%

Endgame

64.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4915, 5970, 1359

/ 100 compat

Projected

156 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4915, 5970, 1359

Auto

40.6 29%

Teleop

80.1 57%

Endgame

18.7 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.35 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score269.9pts

Blue projected score156pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 113.9
Score range: 116–310
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 219.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

419.7Season APEX424.2

40.9Auto40.6

155.5Teleop80.1

64.2Endgame18.7

61Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	16
teleop	102	11
endgame	62	21
foul	0	10
total	212	58

Result

Final score

212 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 78 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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