Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

214.9 – 345.4

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

196 – 450

Prediction correct · off by 61.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.3 ±12.8

4662Byte Sized Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 20.57Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 145.15Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

749Ctrl V

Season APEX 74Event APEX 49.18Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 539.1 ±11.1

9600X-Flare Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 63.9Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2990Hotwire

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 122.23Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 159.27Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4662, 4488, 749

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4662, 4488, 749

Auto

35.2 18%

Teleop

117.0 59%

Endgame

45.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9600, 2990, 955

/ 100 compat

Projected

345.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9600, 2990, 955

Auto

56.7 17%

Teleop

203.8 59%

Endgame

82.5 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 2.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score214.9pts

Blue projected score345.4pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 77%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -130.5
Score range: 176–384
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 646 vs event baseline 218.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.3Season APEX539.1

35.2Auto56.7

117Teleop203.8

45.4Endgame82.5

41Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	79
teleop	69	223
endgame	70	133
foul	10	15
total	196	450

Result

Final score

196 – 450

Prediction correct · off by 61.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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