Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

194.26 – 206.27

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

280 – 245

Prediction missed · off by 62.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 353.6 ±11.7

3669CarbonKnights

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 17.95Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 101.54Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 74.77Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 379.7 ±11.4

2930Sonic Squirrels

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 2.83Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2550Skynet

Season APEX 39Event APEX -1.91Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 205.35Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3669, 997, 2521

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3669, 997, 2521

Auto

41.5 22%

Teleop

75.7 40%

Endgame

70.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2930, 2550, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2930, 2550, 1540

Auto

33.3 16%

Teleop

94.7 47%

Endgame

75.1 37%

Strengths

· 1540 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score194.3pts

Blue projected score206.3pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12
Score range: 155–245
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 525 vs event baseline 217.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

353.6Season APEX379.7

41.5Auto33.3

75.7Teleop94.7

70.9Endgame75.1

3Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	61
teleop	164	165
endgame	82	19
foul	5	0
total	280	245

Result

Final score

280 – 245

Prediction missed · off by 62.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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