Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

222.26 – 198.64

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

205 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.3 ±11.6

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 147.59Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10444Ursa Major

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 0.31Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2557SOTAbots

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 74.36Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 320.8 ±12.8

2733Pigmice

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 44.64Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 116.12Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2915Pandamonium

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 37.88Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4488, 10444, 2557

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4488, 10444, 2557

Auto

39.2 18%

Teleop

139.7 66%

Endgame

34.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2733, 9430, 2915

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2733, 9430, 2915

Auto

40.0 21%

Teleop

106.6 56%

Endgame

44.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score222.3pts

Blue projected score198.6pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 79%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.6
Score range: 160–261
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 373 vs event baseline 218.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.3Season APEX320.8

39.2Auto40

139.7Teleop106.6

34.2Endgame44.5

22Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	52
teleop	91	84
endgame	67	22
foul	30	10
total	205	168

Result

Final score

205 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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