Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

265.07 – 198.97

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

408 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 98 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 393.5 ±11.7

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 154.41Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5975Beta Blues

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX -0.56Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2990Hotwire

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 111.22Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.7 ±11

6465Mystic Biscuit

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 34.96Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 91.24Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 72.77Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6696, 5975, 2990

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6696, 5975, 2990

Auto

32.8 12%

Teleop

150.9 57%

Endgame

80.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6465, 957, 2521

/ 100 compat

Projected

199 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6465, 957, 2521

Auto

45.3 23%

Teleop

94.0 47%

Endgame

60.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.25 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score265.1pts

Blue projected score199pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.1
Score range: 160–304
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 660 vs event baseline 217.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

393.5Season APEX313.7

32.8Auto45.3

150.9Teleop94

80.6Endgame60.1

58Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	46
teleop	265	123
endgame	75	73
foul	5	10
total	408	252

Result

Final score

408 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 98 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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