Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

232.6 – 247.24

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

233 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 1.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320.9 ±12.2

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 149.98Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3636Generals

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 29.68Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

749Ctrl V

Season APEX 74Event APEX 52.94Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 371.6 ±11.7

1359Scalawags

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 26.54Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 116.14Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 104.56Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2471, 3636, 749

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2471, 3636, 749

Auto

61.2 28%

Teleop

122.8 56%

Endgame

35.6 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1359, 9430, 997

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1359, 9430, 997

Auto

52.6 22%

Teleop

130.5 55%

Endgame

55.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score232.6pts

Blue projected score247.2pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.6
Score range: 194–286
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 478 vs event baseline 216.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320.9Season APEX371.6

61.2Auto52.6

122.8Teleop130.5

35.6Endgame55.7

21Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	46
teleop	88	121
endgame	42	68
foul	15	10
total	233	245

Result

Final score

233 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 1.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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