Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

148.72 – 111.14

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

86 – 131

Prediction missed · off by 41.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365.7 ±12.4

2550Skynet

Season APEX 39Event APEX 4.96Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 126.81Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9567StormBreakers

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 16.95Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.2 ±12.7

2557SOTAbots

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 73.78Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2915Pandamonium

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 35.8Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2930Sonic Squirrels

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 1.56Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2550, 4915, 9567

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2550, 4915, 9567

Auto

22.9 17%

Teleop

67.2 49%

Endgame

48.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2557, 2915, 2930

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2557, 2915, 2930

Auto

20.4 19%

Teleop

48.7 47%

Endgame

35.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score148.7pts

Blue projected score111.1pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.6
Score range: 72–188
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 218.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365.7Season APEX209.2

22.9Auto20.4

67.2Teleop48.7

48.1Endgame35.6

110Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	20
teleop	21	77
endgame	9	34
foul	0	0
total	86	131

Result

Final score

86 – 131

Prediction missed · off by 41.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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