Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

295.26 – 259.56

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

213 – 261

Prediction missed · off by 41.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.8 ±11.4

9600X-Flare Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 71.14Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 196.8Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2915Pandamonium

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 27.32Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387.2 ±11.1

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 146.57Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2930Sonic Squirrels

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 16.6Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8032SAASquatch Robotics

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 96.39Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9600, 1540, 2915

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9600, 1540, 2915

Auto

47.3 16%

Teleop

159.7 56%

Endgame

80.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6696, 2930, 8032

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6696, 2930, 8032

Auto

57.3 22%

Teleop

140.8 55%

Endgame

59.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score295.3pts

Blue projected score259.6pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.7
Score range: 218–337
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 474 vs event baseline 233.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.8Season APEX387.2

47.3Auto57.3

159.7Teleop140.8

80.1Endgame59

66Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	44
teleop	120	158
endgame	75	54
foul	5	5
total	213	261

Result

Final score

213 – 261

Prediction missed · off by 41.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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