Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

198.87 – 425.55

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

289 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 88.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 521.1 ±11.2

6831A-05 Annex

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 11.15Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 34.92Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 152.8Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 576 ±8.2

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 125.43Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 212.83Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 87.29Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6831, 2635, 955

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6831, 2635, 955

Auto

36.2 18%

Teleop

111.5 57%

Endgame

49.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9430, 1540, 2811

/ 100 compat

Projected

425.6 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9430, 1540, 2811

Auto

78.5 19%

Teleop

239.3 57%

Endgame

103.5 25%

Strengths

· 1540 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score198.9pts

Blue projected score425.6pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 77%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -226.7
Score range: 160–465
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 627 vs event baseline 218.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

521.1Season APEX576

36.2Auto78.5

111.5Teleop239.3

49.4Endgame103.5

99Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	32
teleop	163	190
endgame	66	111
foul	10	5
total	289	338

Result

Final score

289 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 88.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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