Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

141.14 – 390.42

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

159 – 525

Prediction correct · off by 76.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 261.8 ±12.8

9567StormBreakers

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 18.06Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2915Pandamonium

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 34.29Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 88.79Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 526.5 ±10.4

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 139.47Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 91.61Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 159.34Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9567, 2915, 957

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9567, 2915, 957

Auto

26.7 19%

Teleop

63.3 46%

Endgame

48.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2471, 997, 1425

/ 100 compat

Projected

390.4 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2471, 997, 1425

Auto

88.9 24%

Teleop

199.8 54%

Endgame

81.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141.1pts

Blue projected score390.4pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -249.3
Score range: 102–429
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 684 vs event baseline 215.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

261.8Season APEX526.5

26.7Auto88.9

63.3Teleop199.8

48Endgame81.9

107Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	130
teleop	87	308
endgame	43	87
foul	5	0
total	159	525

Result

Final score

159 – 525

Prediction correct · off by 76.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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