Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

143.75 – 170.83

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

89 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282 ±12.2

749Ctrl V

Season APEX 74Event APEX 58.19Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 76.54Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2930Sonic Squirrels

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 9.02Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.2 ±12.1

8032SAASquatch Robotics

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 90.51Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2557SOTAbots

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 70.29Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5970Beavertronics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 10.03Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 749, 2521, 2930

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 749, 2521, 2930

Auto

36.4 26%

Teleop

56.8 40%

Endgame

48.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8032, 2557, 5970

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8032, 2557, 5970

Auto

41.1 26%

Teleop

88.3 55%

Endgame

31.3 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143.8pts

Blue projected score170.8pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.1
Score range: 105–210
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 314 vs event baseline 217.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282Season APEX271.2

36.4Auto41.1

56.8Teleop88.3

48.5Endgame31.3

53Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	33
teleop	16	143
endgame	35	39
foul	5	10
total	89	225

Result

Final score

89 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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