Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

250.07 – 95.58

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

395 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 96.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 487.7 ±11.1

2990Hotwire

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 97.66Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2898Flying Hedgehogs

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 36.45Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 115.96Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.8 ±11.6

10444Ursa Major

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 3.88Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9600X-Flare Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 62.74Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 28.96Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2990, 2898, 4915

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2990, 2898, 4915

Auto

46.0 20%

Teleop

120.9 53%

Endgame

61.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10444, 9600, 2635

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10444, 9600, 2635

Auto

23.2 23%

Teleop

64.8 64%

Endgame

12.6 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.54 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score250.1pts

Blue projected score95.6pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 154.5
Score range: 57–289
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 538 vs event baseline 217.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

487.7Season APEX269.8

46Auto23.2

120.9Teleop64.8

61.7Endgame12.6

86Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	23
teleop	286	87
endgame	74	33
foul	0	0
total	395	143

Result

Final score

395 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 96.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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