Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

468.01 – 194.77

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

625 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 94.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 750.9 ±8.8

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 196.78Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 132.2Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 139.03Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 319.4 ±12.4

2550Skynet

Season APEX 39Event APEX 6.53Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3669CarbonKnights

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 26.14Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 162.1Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1540, 4488, 955

/ 100 compat

Projected

468 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1540, 4488, 955

Auto

77.5 17%

Teleop

267.9 59%

Endgame

110.8 24%

Strengths

· 1540 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2550, 3669, 6696

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2550, 3669, 6696

Auto

39.3 20%

Teleop

98.9 50%

Endgame

61.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.84 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score468pts

Blue projected score194.8pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 273.2
Score range: 156–507
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 787 vs event baseline 214.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

750.9Season APEX319.4

77.5Auto39.3

267.9Teleop98.9

110.8Endgame61.3

40Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	29
teleop	389	65
endgame	113	53
foul	35	15
total	625	162

Result

Final score

625 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 94.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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