Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

143.52 – 289.47

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

226 – 463

Prediction correct · off by 128 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290 ±11.6

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 22.61Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6465Mystic Biscuit

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 39.39Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8032SAASquatch Robotics

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 81.52Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 605.4 ±10.2

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 179.56Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3669CarbonKnights

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 9.98Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 99.93Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2635, 6465, 8032

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2635, 6465, 8032

Auto

32.7 22%

Teleop

88.4 60%

Endgame

27.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1540, 3669, 4915

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1540, 3669, 4915

Auto

68.2 26%

Teleop

122.2 46%

Endgame

76.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143.5pts

Blue projected score289.5pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -146
Score range: 106–327
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 689 vs event baseline 212.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290Season APEX605.4

32.7Auto68.2

88.4Teleop122.2

27Endgame76.4

109Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	85
teleop	103	266
endgame	59	102
foul	20	10
total	226	463

Result

Final score

226 – 463

Prediction correct · off by 128 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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