Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

161.55 – 336.24

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

186 – 370

Prediction correct · off by 29.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 280.4 ±12.8

5975Beta Blues

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 14.38Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

749Ctrl V

Season APEX 74Event APEX 41.8Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 105.37Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 527.9 ±10.5

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 174.58Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 158.84Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10444Ursa Major

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 2.82Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5975, 749, 997

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5975, 749, 997

Auto

21.6 14%

Teleop

74.0 49%

Endgame

56.6 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 955, 2471, 10444

/ 100 compat

Projected

336.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 955, 2471, 10444

Auto

84.3 26%

Teleop

184.0 56%

Endgame

61.3 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score161.6pts

Blue projected score336.2pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -174.7
Score range: 120–378
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 556 vs event baseline 233.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

280.4Season APEX527.9

21.6Auto84.3

74Teleop184

56.6Endgame61.3

28Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	92
teleop	102	207
endgame	44	71
foul	25	0
total	186	370

Result

Final score

186 – 370

Prediction correct · off by 29.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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