Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

218.95 – 278.73

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

241 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 22.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 572.2 ±9.9

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 142.2Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX 69.65Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5970Beavertronics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 7.1Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 405 ±11.7

2733Pigmice

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 54.42Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 140.44Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 83.87Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 955, 10991, 5970

/ 100 compat

Projected

219 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 955, 10991, 5970

Auto

47.8 23%

Teleop

105.2 51%

Endgame

54.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2733, 4488, 957

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2733, 4488, 957

Auto

57.3 22%

Teleop

160.9 61%

Endgame

46.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score219pts

Blue projected score278.7pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.8
Score range: 181–317
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 497 vs event baseline 211.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

572.2Season APEX405

47.8Auto57.3

105.2Teleop160.9

54.2Endgame46.8

52Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	42
teleop	152	126
endgame	31	83
foul	10	5
total	241	256

Result

Final score

241 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 22.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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