Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

163.82 – 115.06

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

176 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 382.2 ±11

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 21.55Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2930Sonic Squirrels

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 5.79Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 136.48Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256.8 ±12.8

4662Byte Sized Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 39.35Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 77.43Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5975Beta Blues

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX -1.72Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2635, 2930, 4488

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2635, 2930, 4488

Auto

16.1 10%

Teleop

108.4 66%

Endgame

39.6 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4662, 957, 5975

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4662, 957, 5975

Auto

25.1 24%

Teleop

49.3 47%

Endgame

30.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score163.8pts

Blue projected score115.1pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.8
Score range: 76–203
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 336 vs event baseline 215.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

382.2Season APEX256.8

16.1Auto25.1

108.4Teleop49.3

39.6Endgame30.3

99Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	33
teleop	102	83
endgame	17	39
foul	15	5
total	176	160

Result

Final score

176 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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