Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

304.47 – 136.37

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

443 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 101.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 609.9 ±11.2

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 138.91Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 126.24Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2733Pigmice

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 39.32Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.4 ±13.3

9567StormBreakers

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 29.84Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2557SOTAbots

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 72.3Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1359Scalawags

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 34.23Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1425, 955, 2733

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.5 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1425, 955, 2733

Auto

76.1 28%

Teleop

145.0 53%

Endgame

54.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9567, 2557, 1359

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9567, 2557, 1359

Auto

25.9 20%

Teleop

71.6 54%

Endgame

34.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.69 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score304.5pts

Blue projected score136.4pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 168.1
Score range: 97–343
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 515 vs event baseline 214.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

609.9Season APEX204.4

76.1Auto25.9

145Teleop71.6

54.2Endgame34.5

73Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	102	34
teleop	260	5
endgame	81	33
foul	0	0
total	443	72

Result

Final score

443 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 101.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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