Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

298.41 – 282.52

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

411 – 351

Prediction correct · off by 90.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 579.2 ±8.8

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX 57.68Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 71.47Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 169.26Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 455.7 ±10.4

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 117.18Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 74.76Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3674CloverBots

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 90.58Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10991, 997, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10991, 997, 1540

Auto

47.5 18%

Teleop

146.1 54%

Endgame

77.7 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9430, 2521, 3674

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9430, 2521, 3674

Auto

68.1 24%

Teleop

131.0 47%

Endgame

82.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score298.4pts

Blue projected score282.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.9
Score range: 245–336
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 762 vs event baseline 210.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

579.2Season APEX455.7

47.5Auto68.1

146.1Teleop131

77.7Endgame82

62Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	79
teleop	191	210
endgame	145	62
foul	10	0
total	411	351

Result

Final score

411 – 351

Prediction correct · off by 90.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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