Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

189.96 – 128.82

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

263 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 71.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 310.1 ±12.2

6465Mystic Biscuit

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 35.75Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9567StormBreakers

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 25.89Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 128.32Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.5 ±12.8

3669CarbonKnights

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX -0.92Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 131.06Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6831A-05 Annex

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX -1.32Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6465, 9567, 1425

/ 100 compat

Projected

190 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6465, 9567, 1425

Auto

51.1 29%

Teleop

100.9 56%

Endgame

26.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3669, 4488, 6831

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3669, 4488, 6831

Auto

47.7 37%

Teleop

72.8 57%

Endgame

7.9 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score190pts

Blue projected score128.8pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.1
Score range: 91–228
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 462 vs event baseline 210.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

310.1Season APEX323.5

51.1Auto47.7

100.9Teleop72.8

26.7Endgame7.9

122Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	34
teleop	152	101
endgame	51	64
foul	0	0
total	263	199

Result

Final score

263 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 71.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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