Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

213.81 – 165.89

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

239 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 14.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.5 ±11

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 94.61Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 82.24Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3636Generals

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 36.96Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.3 ±12.1

2898Flying Hedgehogs

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 35.68Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9600X-Flare Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 64.49Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2557SOTAbots

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 65.72Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 997, 957, 3636

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 997, 957, 3636

Auto

35.5 19%

Teleop

99.1 52%

Endgame

55.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2898, 9600, 2557

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2898, 9600, 2557

Auto

22.8 14%

Teleop

95.2 59%

Endgame

42.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score213.8pts

Blue projected score165.9pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.9
Score range: 127–253
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 214.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.5Season APEX270.3

35.5Auto22.8

99.1Teleop95.2

55.7Endgame42.1

72Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	53
teleop	132	103
endgame	55	4
foul	20	10
total	239	170

Result

Final score

239 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 14.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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