Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

135.19 – 364.5

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

110 – 379

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 273.3 ±12.8

2915Pandamonium

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 35.77Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 17.74Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

749Ctrl V

Season APEX 74Event APEX 81.68Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 649.6 ±9.3

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 71.27Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 128.59Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 164.64Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2915, 2635, 749

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2915, 2635, 749

Auto

5.9 4%

Teleop

73.4 55%

Endgame

54.6 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2521, 955, 6696

/ 100 compat

Projected

364.5 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2521, 955, 6696

Auto

61.5 17%

Teleop

197.6 55%

Endgame

99.4 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score135.2pts

Blue projected score364.5pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 77%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -229.3
Score range: 97–403
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 489 vs event baseline 209.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

273.3Season APEX649.6

5.9Auto61.5

73.4Teleop197.6

54.6Endgame99.4

52Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	72
teleop	52	194
endgame	28	108
foul	0	5
total	110	379

Result

Final score

110 – 379

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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