Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.4 – 261.81

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.7 ±12.4

1359Scalawags

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 39.49Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2550Skynet

Season APEX 39Event APEX 1.28Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX 53.63Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 463.8 ±10

3674CloverBots

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 82.09Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 162.6Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10444Ursa Major

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 17.12Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1359, 2550, 10991

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1359, 2550, 10991

Auto

28.3 34%

Teleop

28.7 34%

Endgame

26.6 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3674, 1540, 10444

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3674, 1540, 10444

Auto

50.9 20%

Teleop

124.0 49%

Endgame

79.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.4pts

Blue projected score261.8pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -167.4
Score range: 56–300
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 416 vs event baseline 209.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.7Season APEX463.8

28.3Auto50.9

28.7Teleop124

26.6Endgame79.6

98Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	78
teleop	28	157
endgame	52	64
foul	0	5
total	112	304

Result

Final score

112 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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