Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

166.37 – 179.79

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

165 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 7.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.6 ±12.7

5970Beavertronics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 12.5Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2990Hotwire

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 113.64Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2733Pigmice

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 40.23Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.5 ±12.2

2930Sonic Squirrels

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 18.75Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6831A-05 Annex

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 1.62Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 159.42Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5970, 2990, 2733

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5970, 2990, 2733

Auto

29.0 19%

Teleop

75.9 49%

Endgame

50.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2930, 6831, 2471

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2930, 6831, 2471

Auto

60.5 32%

Teleop

92.1 48%

Endgame

39.3 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score166.4pts

Blue projected score179.8pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.4
Score range: 128–218
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 332 vs event baseline 211.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.6Season APEX331.5

29Auto60.5

75.9Teleop92.1

50.2Endgame39.3

87Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	44
teleop	77	69
endgame	51	54
foul	5	0
total	165	167

Result

Final score

165 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 7.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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