Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

252.85 – 214.66

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

236 – 238

Prediction missed · off by 20.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 483.7 ±11.2

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 123.54Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 120.29Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5975Beta Blues

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 9.02Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 320.4 ±11.4

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 104.43Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8032SAASquatch Robotics

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 74.83Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4662Byte Sized Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 35.4Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4915, 9430, 5975

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4915, 9430, 5975

Auto

61.7 27%

Teleop

122.8 54%

Endgame

44.0 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2811, 8032, 4662

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2811, 8032, 4662

Auto

29.4 13%

Teleop

119.8 55%

Endgame

69.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score252.9pts

Blue projected score214.7pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.2
Score range: 177–291
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 474 vs event baseline 210.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

483.7Season APEX320.4

61.7Auto29.4

122.8Teleop119.8

44Endgame69.2

69Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	56
teleop	122	126
endgame	63	56
foul	25	0
total	236	238

Result

Final score

236 – 238

Prediction missed · off by 20.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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