Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

128.46 – 360.79

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

174 – 481

Prediction correct · off by 82.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308.1 ±12.2

6831A-05 Annex

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX -9.04Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10444Ursa Major

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 11.98Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 125.52Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 544.8 ±10.2

749Ctrl V

Season APEX 74Event APEX 66.93Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 150.66Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 143.2Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6831, 10444, 1425

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6831, 10444, 1425

Auto

44.7 39%

Teleop

70.6 61%

Endgame

0.8 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 749, 6696, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

360.8 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 749, 6696, 1540

Auto

46.9 14%

Teleop

192.0 56%

Endgame

102.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score128.5pts

Blue projected score360.8pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -232.3
Score range: 91–398
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 655 vs event baseline 208.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308.1Season APEX544.8

44.7Auto46.9

70.6Teleop192

0.8Endgame102.8

113Consistency141

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	75
teleop	83	291
endgame	29	115
foul	5	0
total	174	481

Result

Final score

174 – 481

Prediction correct · off by 82.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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