Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

227.28 – 204.95

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

346 – 295

Prediction correct · off by 104.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 415 ±11.7

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 58.67Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 137.24Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2733Pigmice

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 31.37Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 549.2 ±8.8

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 89.33Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 4.49Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 111.13Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2521, 2471, 2733

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2521, 2471, 2733

Auto

78.7 35%

Teleop

99.2 44%

Endgame

48.1 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2811, 2635, 4915

/ 100 compat

Projected

205 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2811, 2635, 4915

Auto

26.4 14%

Teleop

110.0 58%

Endgame

53.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score227.3pts

Blue projected score205pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.3
Score range: 168–264
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 641 vs event baseline 204.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

415Season APEX549.2

78.7Auto26.4

99.2Teleop110

48.1Endgame53.6

12Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	29
teleop	174	155
endgame	93	111
foul	0	0
total	346	295

Result

Final score

346 – 295

Prediction correct · off by 104.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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