Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

215.26 – 162.57

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

252 – 297

Prediction missed · off by 85.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 364.4 ±11.6

2930Sonic Squirrels

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 19.18Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3674CloverBots

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 94.32Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2990Hotwire

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 101.76Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 474 ±11.1

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 107.12Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2898Flying Hedgehogs

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 22.75Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3636Generals

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 32.7Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2930, 3674, 2990

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2930, 3674, 2990

Auto

33.3 15%

Teleop

96.3 44%

Endgame

89.2 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 955, 2898, 3636

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 955, 2898, 3636

Auto

47.4 33%

Teleop

75.0 52%

Endgame

22.2 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score215.3pts

Blue projected score162.6pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.7
Score range: 126–252
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 549 vs event baseline 204.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

364.4Season APEX474

33.3Auto47.4

96.3Teleop75

89.2Endgame22.2

124Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	47
teleop	112	166
endgame	105	54
foul	0	30
total	252	297

Result

Final score

252 – 297

Prediction missed · off by 85.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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