Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

277.52 – 247.45

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

212 – 269

Prediction missed · off by 43.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275.2 ±11.6

2557SOTAbots

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 89.53Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6465Mystic Biscuit

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 60.19Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 127.8Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.5 ±12.2

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 124.74Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9600X-Flare Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 83.13Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4662Byte Sized Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 39.58Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2557, 6465, 9430

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2557, 6465, 9430

Auto

50.9 18%

Teleop

163.3 59%

Endgame

62.0 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1425, 9600, 4662

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1425, 9600, 4662

Auto

46.2 20%

Teleop

134.7 59%

Endgame

46.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score277.5pts

Blue projected score247.5pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.1
Score range: 210–315
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 481 vs event baseline 203.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275.2Season APEX361.5

50.9Auto46.2

163.3Teleop134.7

62Endgame46.1

53Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	58
teleop	124	160
endgame	35	51
foul	0	0
total	212	269

Result

Final score

212 – 269

Prediction missed · off by 43.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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