Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

244.26 – 256.74

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

151 – 359

Prediction correct · off by 97.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 463.3 ±11.4

2733Pigmice

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 50.97Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 156.41Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2898Flying Hedgehogs

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 36.88Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 579.4 ±9.8

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 122.04Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 85.85Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 48.85Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2733, 1540, 2898

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2733, 1540, 2898

Auto

53.2 23%

Teleop

108.5 46%

Endgame

73.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4488, 4915, 997

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4488, 4915, 997

Auto

45.3 20%

Teleop

129.7 57%

Endgame

51.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score244.3pts

Blue projected score256.7pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.5
Score range: 208–293
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 510 vs event baseline 200.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

463.3Season APEX579.4

53.2Auto45.3

108.5Teleop129.7

73Endgame51.5

45Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	44
teleop	65	216
endgame	22	54
foul	25	45
total	151	359

Result

Final score

151 – 359

Prediction correct · off by 97.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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