Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

214.17 – 144.13

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

358 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 73.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 385.8 ±10

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 72.51Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2557SOTAbots

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 66.81Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3674CloverBots

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 74.85Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.8 ±13.3

2915Pandamonium

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 34.52Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2990Hotwire

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 99.53Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3669CarbonKnights

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 10.08Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2811, 2557, 3674

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2811, 2557, 3674

Auto

40.5 19%

Teleop

87.4 41%

Endgame

83.4 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2915, 2990, 3669

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2915, 2990, 3669

Auto

22.2 17%

Teleop

56.6 44%

Endgame

51.1 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.21 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score214.2pts

Blue projected score144.1pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70
Score range: 108–250
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 505 vs event baseline 198.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

385.8Season APEX266.8

40.5Auto22.2

87.4Teleop56.6

83.4Endgame51.1

95Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	46
teleop	203	53
endgame	118	48
foul	5	0
total	358	147

Result

Final score

358 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 73.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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