Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.56 – 205.49

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 43.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259.1 ±11.6

5970Beavertronics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 5.62Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 70.84Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10444Ursa Major

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 34.1Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 431.9 ±11.1

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 115.71Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2930Sonic Squirrels

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 23.8Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6465Mystic Biscuit

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 65.98Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5970, 2521, 10444

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5970, 2521, 10444

Auto

39.4 34%

Teleop

63.8 55%

Endgame

12.3 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 955, 2930, 6465

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 955, 2930, 6465

Auto

25.8 12%

Teleop

114.2 53%

Endgame

76.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.6pts

Blue projected score205.5pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.9
Score range: 74–242
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 206.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259.1Season APEX431.9

39.4Auto25.8

63.8Teleop114.2

12.3Endgame76.1

54Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	53
teleop	15	86
endgame	23	23
foul	5	0
total	67	162

Result

Final score

67 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 43.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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