Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

259.2 – 152.7

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

396 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 82.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 432.2 ±11

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 93.39Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9600X-Flare Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 67.32Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 98.49Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 302.5 ±11.7

2557SOTAbots

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 60.24Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX 65.53Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5975Beta Blues

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 26.93Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4488, 9600, 9430

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4488, 9600, 9430

Auto

40.5 16%

Teleop

180.4 70%

Endgame

36.6 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2557, 10991, 5975

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2557, 10991, 5975

Auto

9.2 7%

Teleop

78.2 62%

Endgame

39.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.46 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score259.2pts

Blue projected score152.7pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 106.5
Score range: 116–296
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 520 vs event baseline 203.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

432.2Season APEX302.5

40.5Auto9.2

180.4Teleop78.2

36.6Endgame39.5

97Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	32
teleop	252	50
endgame	75	32
foul	0	10
total	396	124

Result

Final score

396 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 82.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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