Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.62 – 252.08

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

104 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 16.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 303.2 ±12.2

1359Scalawags

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 43.18Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2898Flying Hedgehogs

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 33.67Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 18.77Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.5 ±12.2

2990Hotwire

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 97.66Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 138.8Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2550Skynet

Season APEX 39Event APEX 15.62Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1359, 2898, 2635

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1359, 2898, 2635

Auto

31.4 29%

Teleop

55.7 51%

Endgame

22.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2990, 1425, 2550

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2990, 1425, 2550

Auto

66.9 30%

Teleop

127.9 57%

Endgame

28.7 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score95.6pts

Blue projected score252.1pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -156.5
Score range: 59–289
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 331 vs event baseline 205.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

303.2Season APEX365.5

31.4Auto66.9

55.7Teleop127.9

22.4Endgame28.7

99Consistency163

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	18
teleop	57	97
endgame	18	102
foul	10	10
total	104	227

Result

Final score

104 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 16.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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